Good morning. The big news today of course will be the release of the Jobs number. The stage has been set for a bad number which we are told to throw away because of distortions from the horrendous winter weather in the mid-Atlantic states. So the market has ignored it and rallied into the close yesterday and through the night with the S&P futures up 5 points as I write. We of course in the fullness of time shall see. In the mean time around the world:
Asia
Japan was on fire last night opening immediately up 2% and holding those gains all day long. The Hang Seng sold off at the open but rallied late date to close up 1%. Nice markets overnight in Asia.
Europe
Europe is setting up a trend up day, I suppose the US markets will have the last say there, and are currently on their highs of the day
United States
Economic news
Jobs at 8:30… but don’t forget the 3pm Consumer Credit information which will most likely show another in consumer credit debt. Less debt means less buy and more money going into paying debt. A nice trend for the family’s books but a deadly mix for a growing economy.
Earnings
Breadth Charts
40 DMA % Index
10 Day High – Low
52 Week New Highs
Conclusion
$SPX
Three days of trading and I have not move my lines. It makes it easier to prepare in the morning. I have no idea about an open today as reaction to the numbers will set that up. I did add an optimistic line above 1125 at 1131 where I see some resistance. Above 1125 the lines become spread out so we could accelerate upward above that fib level. 1123 is still the major support/resistance area tested 14 times over the last 3 days. Yesterday 1120 was a strong area also test 14 times in a single day, so those lines are pretty much proved out. A break above 1125.50 should send us up. I am still worried above that unfilled gap between 1115.75 and 1116.65. A negative reaction to the report would fill that. Below that gap is 1113 and last chance at 1110. From 1125 to 1110 is only a 15 point range and we might fill it all today. The 3 days of NR7 type action have set us up for a break up or break down.
Bull Plan: If the employment number gaps us down fill the gap than pivot and rally. If we gap up break 1125 and run for the top crushing the bears.
Bears Plan: If we gap up over 1125 the bears need to fade the opening immediately and get back into the comfort box of 1125 to 1110. Stall the advance and sell of into the close below the gap or better yet below 1110. Gaping down on opening, let the gap down fade up to resistance and then sell off closing below 1113.
This is a day you need to be in the room as plans will be made on the battlefield. If you are an email member stop in and say hi. http://ttthedge.acrobat.com/traders. If you are a visitor and curious about the room stop in too and say hi and ask questions.
Hope to see you in the markets
Marlin – aka RedlionTrader
