RedlionTrader

Webinar–Trading with the Pivot Boss, Frank Ochoa Wednesday, February 8th @ 11am EST

redliontrader — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:44:22 +0000

We are thrilled to have Frank back for one of our lunch time webinars. This webinar is targeted to both members and guests. Frank is a terrific trader, speaker and educator and he will discuss his latest work and what he sees currently setting up in the markets. ** Note: This timely webinar will be well attended so make sure you login early in order to get your seat at the table.

Where: TTTHedge.com trading room: http://ttthedge.adobeconnect.com/traders

When: February 8th at 11AM EST.

Click on the link above and enter our award winning room as a guest. Come early and stay late and spend the day trading with us as it will be open house all day long!

About Frank Ochoa

PivotBoss is the brainchild of Frank Ochoa, a 14-year market veteran and author of the critically acclaimed book Secrets of a Pivot Boss. He has traded in both discretionary and fully-automated trading environments, and has played an important role in trading software creation and development, including the creation of advanced trading systems.

Frank moved to Austin, TX in 1997 to attend The University of Texas at Austin, where he received his B.S. in Corporate Communication in 2001, including an emphasis in Business Foundations. He began actively trading stocks in 1998 and eventually turned a hobby into a career in 2001 when he was hired as a Trading Room Intern for the Austin-based software company Nirvana Systems, Inc. while still a Senior at UT. Within months, Frank was offered a full time position as a Market Analyst and was eventually promoted to Sr. Market Analyst; a title that he held for the remainder of his ten-year career at the company.

In 2010, Frank published his first book, Secrets of a Pivot Boss, which has become a highly acclaimed book for active traders and stock market enthusiasts. The book has garnered wide-spread praise from traders all over the world and is routinely mentioned among the best trading books on the market.

Frank is a premiere trading educator. Frank has educated thousands of traders over the last decade and has become a highly accomplished public speaker. His methods for educating and engaging audiences has garnered high praise, and his services are often requested for speaking engagements across the country.

Frank is well-versed in trading education and routinely teaches on a variety of subjects, including intraday trading, swing trading, position trading, trade management, trading platform education, system development and creation, technical analysis, indicator-based trading, and pure price-based trading. In addition, Frank is one of the foremost trading educators on pivot-based trading techniques in the world.

Frank has given speeches for top trading organizations and groups, including the Market Technicians Association (MTA), the Association for Technical Analysis (AfTA), and the Austin Association of Financial Traders (AAFT), among others.

Frank is also a highly accomplished general market analyst, and has made spectacular calls over the last decade, including the market crashes of 2001 and 2008, and the market rallies of 2003, 2005, and 2009.

Frank resides in Austin, TX and is happily married to his high school sweetheart Claudia, is proud father to daughter Olivia, and is expecting his second daughter in May 2012.

Flat today in a tight range. If we do follow through to the upside, reset the bull clock back to zero and ride higher. $study

redliontrader — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:16:46 +0000

Around the Globe

Asia – CLOSED

Shanghai (China) +0.03%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.23%
Nikkei (Japan)+1.10%

Europe as of 7:51am EDT

DAX (Germany) -0.20%
FTSE (UK) -0.15%

Today’s Economic News:

Quote of the day:
On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog. – Peter Steiner

Current Allocations from our room:

Performance Month to Date from our room:

Current Breadth Readings:

Breadth is on the move. A perfect 18 score. We think we are beginning to mark the bottom of a future correction area.

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Our models suggest there is going to be a whole lot of nothing today as the markets consolidate a solid bull performance from Friday. We are expecting a range bound day without any progress to the upside for the next couple of days. We have a fairly tight trading range in place today with shorts in the 1340/42 area and longs in the 1330/26 area.

The breadth has extended about as far as it can now. We expect to begin to see some serious divergence from breadth and price as price continues to climb higher based on momentum and a thinning list of quality leadership stocks. At some point that will exhaust and we should make a more serious correction in the 3-8% range. In the meantime it should be slow upside progress.

US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

After a week of downside consolidation, the Dollar is making a move to breakout. Watching 80 for a retest of the 78.75 area.

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

Wow, now that is what we are talking about as far as shorting TLT even if you have to play whack a mole. 115.50 is the next break to hit our 111 target on TLT.

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DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. TTTHedge.com, its officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. TTTHedge.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Breadth beginning to mark the exhaustion recovery area. $study

redliontrader — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:56:27 +0000

Score: +18

Big day for the bulls, taking a nice gap and running with it. Monday is all about follow through.

281 new highs on the Russell. Last time that happened was that sept-nov 2010 bull rally we have been using as a model.

Back to flat for the ten day cycles.

They are done. The Russell is now in the 90s for the 50 DPI, last time we hit numbers like that was 10/18/2010, again the rally we are extracting our model from. There was still some upside from here, but this live marked the area where a correction from up higher came back to retest.

Follow me on twitter: @redliontrader

Trend remains up.. if the market likes NFP, new highs in store else the trend is dead $study

redliontrader — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:32:30 +0000

Around the Globe

Asia – CLOSED

Shanghai (China) +0.77%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +0.08%
Nikkei (Japan)-0.51%

Europe as of 7:06am EDT

DAX (Germany) +0.24%
FTSE (UK) +0.45%

Today’s Economic News:

Quite a bit of red in the eco news. All eyes are on the USA, however, with jobs news and ISM data in the morning.

Quote of the day:
I once wanted to become an atheist, but I gave up – they have no holidays. – Henny Youngman

Current Allocations from our room:

Performance Month to Date from our room:

Current Breadth Readings:

Breadth continues to be strong, but the 50 DPI is just days away form giving us a bearish score.

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

We are feeling lazy today and giving the same chart as yesterday. Well, not the exact same chart, but the same long and short areas.

The ESH12 needs a new high today in our opinion to keep the trend up, else our trend up will turn into a sideways consolidation which we will watch for a breakout. The new high area is 1329.75. It doesn’t have to hold it, although that would be nice, it just needs to probe it.

We are not interested in shorting until we approach the 1339 area. Long interest us at 1312, NFP numbers this morning will rule supreme. If the trade direction from the news reaction is wrong, our intraday indicators should prove handy looking for reversals.

We are meeting early, 8:15am EST in the room to watch and trade any reaction to the numbers so we hope you can join us. http://ttthedge.adobeconnect.com/traders

US Dollar DX Futures Comments

Dollar ZZZZzzzz. Sleeping around the 79 area. We will watch one more day, the NFP data should loosen up trade.

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

We would like to see something a little more dramatic on the TLT, something that closes that 118 gap. Watching 119.50 to the upside today. We think there is another good day of selling left in TLT.

>>> Follow us @TopTickTraders <<<<<

Let’s hear it for the bulls.. let’s give the bulls a hand $study

redliontrader — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:16:19 +0000

Score: +8

Bulls held an nr7 day positive. There is still life in the long side.

The NYSE underperformed in the 52 week new highs but risk on was the word.

Or 10 DHL continues to look like the prairie. Flat,

The 50 DPI is starting to run flat on the Naz and Rut.

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SP500 Needs a new high quick to keep the trend alive $study

redliontrader — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:57:14 +0000

Around the Globe

Asia – Trifecta

Shanghai (China) +1.96%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +2.00%
Nikkei (Japan)+0.76%

Europe as of 7:32am EDT

DAX (Germany) -0.06%
FTSE (UK) -0.17%

Today’s Economic News:

Not a lot of news out of Europe today. UK’s construction PMI was a disappointment. The Europe PPI was weak reflecting a a lower EURO which should be good for German export business.

Quote of the day:
Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions. – Evan Esar

Current Allocations from our room:

Performance Month to Date from our room:

Current Breadth Readings:

Breadth came back strong on Wednesday. The bulls need to show the ability to still follow through.

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

So here’s the question. Higher, sideways or lower? That is always the question. Based on our breadth information, we think more upside is in the works with just 1% intraday downside movements before upside expansion. In other words, the price should not go down more than 1% from the most recent high unless we have made new highs. That hasn’t happened yet, so you can argue that we are in 5 day sideways topping process until we see new highs. On Wednesday the Russell and Nasdaq both made new highs and showed upside leadership, leaving the more mature and wizened Dow and SP500 in the dust. Those older bulls need to follow through today or tomorrow to keep the trend alive.

So far nothing is broke and if you are looking for a friend in the trend, the trend is up.

On the long side today, we would look to buy any drop into the 1312 area and on the upside looking for a short we are focusing on the 1340 area. 1330.25 will be an interesting short attempt if we get there, that is both the most recent high and the R1 area, so mark that on your charts today should we run.

It is all about the reaction to Jobs news over the next couple of days and very little to do with technicals, so sit back and see which why the news cycle spins.

US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

The dollar is trading in about a 0.80 range consolidating above 79. We are looking for a break above 79.60 to mark the beginning of some upside movement.

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

Whack a mole TLT has started downwards again. We watch now for a break above 121 for a possible trend change or a break below 118 for continuation to the downside.

>>> Follow us @TopTickTraders <<<<<

Breadth continues to build to the upside $study

redliontrader — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:23:54 +0000

Score: +14

The bulls pushed with great breadth yesterday, popping the most 52 week new highs in over a year. Momentum continues to build.

The 52 Week new highs continue to build to the upside.

The 10 day cycle returned strong.

The 50 DPI put in a perfect score. We should see our first bearish score in the next week or so. 23 days of trend calling for the 50 DPI. That is why we like it.

Follow me on twitter: @redliontrader

Can the bulls hold and push? We think so $study

redliontrader — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 13:03:58 +0000

Around the Globe

Asia – CLOSED

Shanghai (China) -1.07%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.28%
Nikkei (Japan)+0.08%

Europe as of 7:39am EDT

DAX (Germany) +2.40%
FTSE (UK) +1.48%

Today’s Economic News:

Europe having a good day as the PMI data come in strong and the Euro Fed starts to get fleshed out. Lots of US news today with ISM data leading the pack. Watch for volatility around 10am EST.

Quote of the day:
I tend to live in the past because most of my life is there. – Herb Caen

Current Allocations from our room:

Performance Month to Date from our room:

Current Breadth Readings:

Breadth continues to move along for the bulls, watching now as the 50 DPI is getting squeezed along the top..

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

1329.75 is the previous high, 1296.25 the pullback low, almost exactly on the 2.5% line. Yesterday was a 1.25% intraday pullback with a gap open forming today. We continue to think that the highs of the rally are not in yet and are looking to the 1340 area for a swing short. We like aggressively buying pullback opportunities like yesterday’s 1305 area.

So eyes on the high today. 1320 is key for the bulls. They need to hold the 1315 area today. We still have not had a hot day in any direction with 9:1 type numbers in volume or a/d lines. The selling yesterday was aggressive when it was turned on, that has us a little concerned, but until proven wrong we will stick with the trend in place.

The trend in breadth has been just too strong and long in duration to have a pivotal top. A retest should at least be in the cards.

US Dollar DX Futures Comments

Dollar is basing here, we would still like to see that touch at 78.60 to look for a long.

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

TLT is poking above the lower high trendline. We think it is whack a TLT time to short. A move above 122 would have us wrong.

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Bulls take the breadth back $study

redliontrader — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:28:39 +0000

Score: +2

Back to bull scores. Nice 52 week new highs.

Nice build on the 52 week new highs.

The 10 day cycles having a dip.

Now we look for a decisive cross of the 20 DMA and the 50 DPI to call a top.

Follow me on twitter: @redliontrader

Grinding higher, our litmus test is no pull backs greater than 1% $study

redliontrader — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:00:02 +0000

Around the Globe

Asia – Trifecta

Shanghai (China) +0.33%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +1.14%
Nikkei (Japan)+0.11%

Europe as of 7:29am EDT

DAX (Germany) +1.00%
FTSE (UK) +0.70%

Today’s Economic News:

Quote of the day:
There’s an old saying about those who forget history. I don’t remember it, but it’s good. – Stephen Colbert

Current Allocations from our room:

Performance Month to Date from our room:

Current Breadth Readings:

A red bar you say? 9 green days and then red. Expect a return to green in the next couple of days as the rally plays out.

ES SP500 Futures Comments

Our 3 day pullback is over and if our theory is correct we should be testing the highs in the next couple of days. We think the climb will be slow from here were you can actually trades days as range days with the expectations that upside expansion to the range is probable.

Should we quickly rally to the highs today we would look for signs of exhaustion and take advantage of some weak longs giving way. On the downside we will hungrily buy the Pivot Point at 1306.50.

There is a lot of news to work through this week which will either add or subtract from the upside momentum. News of course trumps all, or at least the reaction to news.

There may be a trigger moment that thrusts us higher, but absent of that we expect a slow grind higher with pullbacks of less than 1% for the next few days.

US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

We continue to chase the dollar down looking for an entry long. We thought the 79.60 might make a nice bounce area and put in a right shoulder, that didn’t happen. Now we are watching the 78.60 area and looking for a RSI oversold signal to flag a buying opp.

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

Time to short the TLT again as we play whack-a-mole. The prairie dog once again has stuck its head out of the hole. Today should be a bad day for TLT.

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