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It’s Broward county all over again and the hanging chads No clear winner in the Zweig Breadth Thrust $Study

redliontrader — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 22:08:28 +0000

Wow, we were there then we weren’t then we were then we weren’t. Recall that we need 61.5 NYSE advancing percentage 10 day EMA to generate a Zweig Breadth Reversal Thrust (ZBTR) signal. We have not had one since March 2009 which was the starting gun for the two year rally. They are rare, very rare.

I have done most of my research on this signal using the TradeStation NYSE data and on Friday it closed like this:

No matter how many times I hit Ctrl-R to refresh the data, I cannot get it to reach that 61.5 level.

On FreeStockCharts.com, they have the ZBT looking like this: A value of 62.13 which clearly is a hit.

My NinjaTrader/Kinetick data looks like this: 61.99 another winner.

So if we vote the answer is YES, we did get out ZBTR. My problem with the Kinetick data is it also gave us a ZBTR on the March Reversal of this year:

Which nether Worden nor TradeStation awarded.

I am really hoping that Monday, since we have one more day in the window, we can get TradeStation up and over and then the historians can argue about the day. I just want my simulations to work! So I am waiting one more day, expecting some strength on Monday to get alignment.

-Red

Ned Davis 4% Buy Signal Entering long on Monday $study

redliontrader — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 21:40:57 +0000

Ok, First for the easy one. We did get a Ned Davis 4% buy signal, so the Ned Davis system tracked at Redliontrader.com will go long on the open on Monday into UWM on Monday.

Our system has been up 92% including the last chopped entry. Remember this system only has a 50% entry success rate, but it is a trend follower and once locked onto a trend produces some fantastic returns.

The reason I say easy one, is because we are tracking a Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal and we have mixed results from different data vendors.. More on that coming.

-REd

TTTHedge.com Free Webinar–Which Trading Platform is Right for Me? First Pass look at NinjaTrader

redliontrader — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 12:13:43 +0000

Hello,

You are invited to a webinar on Features and Benefits of trading on NinjaTrader and how to setup the TTTHedge.com indicators. There will be some homework to get ready for this interactive webinar so please make sure you register to get the daily homework!

When: Thursday October 20th @ 7pm EDT

Where: TTTHedge.com Trading room @ http://TTTHedge.adobeconnect.com/traders

Seating is limited so please register at the address below. Once registered you will receive some email getting you setup for the webinar. NinjaTrader is a 100% free platform and with Kinetick.com end of the day free data you can extract some very useful breadth information to help you see “under the hood” what is going on outside of index prices.

Register by clicking HERE and get your first homework assignment

Agenda:

Brief overview of 3 chart and trading platforms: NinjaTrader, TradeStation, ThinkorSwim with some strength & weaknesses of each.

Overview of a few of the TTTHedge.com indicators with RedlionTrader. Before the webinar starts you should have successfully downloaded the Ninja platform, configured it and downloaded some of Red’s indicators.

During the webinar we will download Replay data from the previous day and talk about how to trade that day

Interaction:

There will be interaction at the end as time permits and then at 8pm we will roll into live trading the overnight markets. Red will alos discuss his newest bid/ask/volume/sales indicator that attempts to reach into the markets and detect real-time high frequency buying and selling opportunities on the ES EMini contract.

Webinar–Nooner’s service.. a daily trade to time the markets–Sunday @ 6:30PM EDT

redliontrader — Fri, 20 May 2011 15:16:03 +0000

Hello everyone! We had a great webinar on Tuesday as we watch Ilan Levy-Mayer trade the CL market, showing us his entry style, risk management (stops and profit targets). It is so great seeing how different traders find their own edges. If you didn’t get to watch the webinar it was recorded here:

http://ttthedge.adobeconnect.com/p77738931/

Webinar, Sunday May 21st @ 6:30pm

We will be hosting another webinar this Sunday @ 6:30 pm about our new Nooners service. Here is the gist of the service.. each day around new a trade in an ETF will be issued. It will either be a long or short trade using a leveraged or unleveraged index ETF. The trade alert can either be go to cash, enter long, enter short, hold current trade or reverse or rotate. Simple. We have been in beta for the past few weeks with the service to work out the kinks.

The service was designed for those that want to actively trade the markets but do not have the time to be behind the markets all day. For those interested in options, there is an alternative options trade with each daily alert. If you are interested in the service, how it works, how the calls are made, past performance I invite you to attend:

I will send out a reminder and link 1 day ahead of time and a last time 30 minute warning. We hope to see you there.

Here is the link to watch the webinar’s recording. Thank you Ilan!

http://ttthedge.adobeconnect.com/p77738931/

Looking for just the right Christmas Present..

redliontrader — Sun, 19 Dec 2010 12:00:58 +0000

Leave it to someone to fashionize (is that a word?) the medical scrub business. Surfing around I have been looking for the “unusual” gift that is not an unimaginative gift card but something unique and different. How about fashionable scrubs for that Nurse, Doctor or Medical technician in your life? Or for just plain hanging around at home in? http://www.blueskyscrubs.com/ started in the scrubs business but has since expanded the label into other casual clothing.

An independent clothing startup worth visiting and watching for a buyout or IPO.. IMHO

ES_F scalp using a Linear Regression Channel [video 5min]

redliontrader — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 16:46:32 +0000

This is a video from an ES_F scalp from Tuesday morning, June 15th. My channel is setup as a 23 period and on a 3 minute chart. I enter long when we move from the lower standard deviation to the upper (opposite for a short) and use the NYSE ticks to confirm the entry.

Your going to have to click on the video and run it in 720p mode in order to see what is happening.

If you are interested in downloading the indicator for TradeStation you can get it here:

if you have any questions you can reach me at rlt at redliontrader.com.

Zweig Update.. Lost in translation

redliontrader — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 02:36:52 +0000

I have received several requests for a Zweig breadth update. Here is the chart from Tuesday’s close:

We are now 5 days out from the exit of oversold looking to reach the overbought area now by Tuesday of next week in order to confirm a breadth thrust.

Zweig Davis 4% system back to cash..

redliontrader — Sat, 08 May 2010 21:08:13 +0000

The Zweig/Ned Davis/RedlionTrader systems went back to cash on Friday’s close based on a weekly loss of 4%. This last trade has been the systems first loss since trading started in March of 2009.

Trades so far:

Live spreadsheet update:

Another 4% up week will trigger the system to renter RRY, but until then it is the sidelines. To read other posts about this system:

Zweig/Davis/Redliontrader 4% trading system/

Updated version 3.0 of Trader Pivots

redliontrader — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 03:12:45 +0000

I have updated my trader pivots indicator to work better with futures.

Sample chart of $SPX.X with pivots enabled. (click on image to get a larger version).

These are the traditional pivot calculations.

ShowTodaysOHLC = if set to TRUE will plot today’s open, high and low lines
ShowYesterdaysOHLC = if set to TRUE will plot yesterday’s open, high and low lines
ShowHalfPivots = if set to True will display a dashed line halfway between pivots
dateORsession = sets how transitions between days is calculated. If set to a 1 the indicator will use a date change to force recalculation of the pivots. This is good for stocks. If set to a 0 the indicator will use the end of the session to calculated the next pivot points. (good for futures).
TxtOffset = Allows you to move the legend text around
Vers. = Do not change this. This is the current version of the indicator and is used for support purposes.

This is the download for the TraderPivots

Natural Gas.. The last great American bargain

redliontrader — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 03:29:00 +0000

I am struck by how low the price of natural gas is. The historic low prices are a victim of oversupply with under-demand and is a lesson about the economics of commodities. Here is a chart of the continuous natural gas contract (NG) price action over the last 10 years. The 2005 peak was the result of the hurricane Katrina year where natural gas production was shut down and the U.S. quickly learned there was very little in the way of natural gas infrastructure workaround and distribution and redundancy. (The 2008 peak in the chart was the oil bubble. )

Here is the same time span for the CL futures or oil.

Excepting for the peak in the 2005 pricing in natural gas, they mirror each other pretty closely. Currently natural gas is underperforming oil as it is hit by that double whammy of over-supply and decreasing demand.

The 2005 and 2008 price peaks increased the pressure for discovery and infrastructure improvements for the production of natural gas and those investments have paid off in better more economical distribution as well as the discovery and tapping of more reserves. The supply issues have been addressed.

The demand side however fell off as the result of the current economic softness. Since natural gas is priced in dollars and is homebrewed it does not have the same inverse relationship as oil has to the dollar. Currently our natural gas is not exported but as more LNG tankers come online the United States could once again be an energy exporting nation. Japan, Korea and China have invested large amounts in exploiting natural gases via major infrastructure improvements. South America has the largest fleets and installed filling stations for natural gas vehicles with over 48% of the automobiles running compressed natural gas.

We now have what is currently a BTU arbitrage.

The purpose of energy products is to exploit their BTU content (energy) for the manufacturing of goods or heat. Most of the energy from these products is used to produce steam for electricity, heat for our houses or to drive the engines in our cars, trucks, planes and trains. So which is the most dollar efficient?

Looking at the current price and the BTU content of each and comparing on a BTU to BTU basis produces the following chart:

Chart of BTU per dollar comparison of OIL vs.. Natural Gas vs.. Coal vs.. Electricity.

(pricing as of December 4th, 2009)

Using Oil as the norm for the comparison it turns out that natural gas, when compared to oil on a BTU to BTU basis, is almost 3 times cheaper. Coal (a little impracticable for cars) is 6 times cheaper! Even electricity is a cheaper source of energy than oil. (The cost of electricity is averaged across hydro, nuclear, natural gas, coal.. very little oil is used in the production of electricity).

If you want to profit from this arbitrage, switch your house over to natural gas if you have the option convert your cars to natural gas. Our cities are already doing this for their public transportation. Switching to natural gas has the added benefit of being cleaner for the environment (there is very little sulfur and other bad stuff in natural gas) and produces 1/3 the carbon emissions over oil. The best reason of all? It is American made (along with Canada).

The largest use of natural gas in the United States is for the generation of electricity and for industrial production. Paying attention to the weekly natural gas numbers is a good barometer on gauging the recovering strength of the American economy.

-RLT