Author Archives: redliontrader

Bulls are losing their breadth.. watch those new highs $ES_F 1655 x 1610

Today’s Economic News:

Oh my goodness, look at that number out of Japan! Awesome. All about Michigan today at that odd 9:55am ET. Why is Detroit in the eastern time-zone?

Quote of the Day:
The enraged colonists were mad.
–CJ’s US History Work

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

There is a plethora of bearish divergences today, the Zweig being just one of them. That means that this market breadth is going to have to kick on, else the leaders will snap the rubber band that is allowing them to run further ahead.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1665
Long: 1610

Just a quick note as I am out the door for the weekend. Obviously we are losing breadth support in here, we need to keep watching that and the NYSE NHS are a good barometer. 376 yesterday, that is still awesome, but we want less than that today.

Our upper target of exhaustion now sits at 1665 and our correction level at 1610.

You all have a safe weekend and don’t miss the MrTopStep webinar with my good friend Frank Ochoa, the Pivot Boss this Saturday. Frank has a great way of layering structure on the market and trading while managing risks.

click here to signup for: “Forecasting Accurate Targets with ADR featuring PivotBoss”

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

This area this AM, 84.30 was an upside target, we also have an inverse head and shoulders here that targets up to 84.67. We like dollar long to an eventual target of 86.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

Giddy up and go TLT. Looking for 120.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Bearish divergence

Cumulative Volume Index:

Bearish divergence (just joined in )

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

Bearish Divergence

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

Bearish Divergence (just joined in )

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Neutral (switch)

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bullish but always the last to join the party.. a confirming signal .

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

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Watch those New Highs today.. they can’t keep this up.. $ES_F 1664 x 1610

Today’s Economic News:

Decent numbers out of Japan today, watching for the 8:30 news, there is quite a bit in here.

Quote of the Day:
Intelligence without ambition is a bird without wings.
–C. Archie Danielson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

We will put up the Zwieg today to show the bearish divergence developing here. A weaker A/D line while prices continue to run higher.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1664
Long: 1610

Waiting of those daily high chutes that keep pushing us higher to stop. We have plenty of signs that not everyone is on board here but until people want to let go of their holdings then up we go.

I am far behind my TODO list today and I got up extra early! Go figure.

So suffice to say with 534 new NYSE NHS (despite a negative NYSE A/D line).. quality is being bought and for the few and the proud this market is going higher.

1664 is our upside target today and we are tracking back @ a 3% pullback which is now 1610.

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

The dollar came back to test the 83.80 area only to put in a lower high. We can see 83.50 as more downside in here.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

A green day on the TLT, let’s see if we can’t get back up to the 119 area over the next few days.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Bearish Divergence

Cumulative Volume Index:

Bullish Confirming.

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

Bearish Divergence

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

Sick, as in good.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Weakening.. this often turns early.

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Strong and long.

Summary.. your pick but the trend is the friend.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

Looking for my Party invitation $ES_F 1654 x 1599

Today’s Economic News:

Load it up. It is news in the USA today.. Inflation, Manufacturing, we have it all. Weaker than expected GDP numbers out of Europe and the UK have the dollar on a run and the USA market down just a bit, waiting for the USA releases.

Quote of the Day:
In matters of conscience, the law of the majority has no place.
–“Mahatma” Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

Putting this crazy frenzied New Highs/ New Lows chart up. Almost 100% on the New High / New Low ratio, the last time we were at this height was 8/3/2011 and the last time we fired off a series like this was coming out of the 2009 trough, where we basically rallied all year long.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1654
Long: 1599

Party hats are on and the market is climbing up to new highs. Party like it is 2009. Everyone wants to say the 90s but looking back through the data, that 2nd half 2009 rally looks a lot like this rally and that party lasted all year long. We are back in the mode of not able to get anything more that a 0.5% pullback.

Our breadth is giving us some bearish convergences, but they are freshly painted so a series of follow through days could fix that. We have gone to +5 mode where we basically move the high higher by 4 or 5 points looking for consolidation after a major push. We will get that 3% pullback, but if you were short 3% back you are now looking to get break even at 1600!

It feels like Friday.

It is about follow through and I think that could be a little harder now with developing weaker breadth. Today will be a good testing day. (Watch the NYSE NHs).

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

I was mucking around with some new indictors and I lost most of my charts. There is a problem with NinjaTrader in workspace management. A weakness that I know about but always seem to fall in.

The Dollar is on the rise. Duh. Our upside target remains 86. We are looking for 84.33 in here to exhaust and retest the 84 area.

I have temporarily lost those buy,sell zones.. but we are way overbought and they would suggest a swing short in here.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

What can we cay about TLT? Too far to fast and now we have to move our upside targets back down. We lost that chart too yesterday, I hope to have better data online by next week as I am reconfiguring for the 2nd half of 2013.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Bearish Divergence.

Cumulative Volume Index:

Bearish Divergence.

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

Bearish DIvergence

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

Bullish.. Very.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Bearish Divergence, but still bullish.

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

Any one have a 100 watt light bulb, my oven is cold $ES_F 1638 x 1585

Today’s Economic News:

Don’t like those deflationary numbers out of Europe.. they scare us. OK numbers from Japan and good optimism from the small business group this AM., That has bolstered any early morning weakness.

Quote of the Day:
If at first you don’t succeed, skydiving is not for you.
–Francis Roberts

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

Our Zweig continues to correct, and as we feared, that does not mean price will chase. We do have a bearish divergence forming here though.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1638
Long: 1585

Up a bit both top and bottom on today’s range targets.

We are setting up some bearish divergences but the market is still uber strong. 305 NYSE new highs yesterday!

There is still some non-popped kernels in the bag, once we stop hearing them we should be able to enjoy.

Patience is the rules for the shorts. Patience all around for us since we like dollar short for a swing, TLT long and ES short..

At some point this cake will bake, in the mean time I need to change the bulb in the Easy-Bake to higher wattage.

Sell Zone: 1651.75 x 1621.50
Buy Zone: 1562 x 1531

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

Dang, we did get some selling in here, we want a test back to 82.80 area. This chart is making hat 84 area is looking pretty good.

Sell Zone: 83.60 x 83.20
Buy Zone: 82.13 x 81.64

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

Best buy out here in our opinion, TLT up to 123.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Bearish divergence

Cumulative Volume Index:

Bearish Divergence.

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

Bearish Divergence

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

Bullish..

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

bearish divergence but bullish overall.

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bullish..

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

Waiting for the Kettle to run dry $ES_F 1634 x 1584

Today’s Economic News:

Simple calendar today. We like that. China news a bit weak today and that has us off the mark this am. In the USA today we have retail sales that will set the sails early at 8:30am ET. Business inventories at 10am ET ant those auctions at 11:30am ET.

Quote of the Day:
If it doesn’t matter who wins, then how come they keep score?
–Vincent Lombardi

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

Friday gave us an extreme reading on the New Highs / New Lows ratio. That usually implies a pullback even if small, but if you doubted how strong this market is.. look at that.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1634
Long: 1584

Leaving the levels alone at 1634 x 1584 areas today.

We are really just putting in a consolidating bull flag in here. I see lots of traders reading it as “heavy” and “losing steam”. We like that, but there is still plenty of water in the kettle and the fire seems pretty hot. Still we have 1634 as the topping area as it is hard for us to find more upside here in outer-space.

We are looking for the 3% woosh down that we think should then slingshot back up and then settle into more sustainable selling. We will ride that ship when it arrives. In the mean time we want to see those New Highs start to ebb and the TLT start to flow to show us that those “heavy” calls have something to them breadth-wise.

Buy Zone: 1559.20 x 1530.15
Sell Zone: 1645.71 x 1616.87

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

We like the dollar long to 86 for the long long term, but after this last thrust we favor the short side here down to the 82.80 area before finding higher legs.

Sell Zone: 83.45 x 82.99
Buy Zone: 82.06 x 81.60

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

We are long TLT just shy of the 120 area and have taken heat in here. We are looking for some upside in the 122 area this week.

Buy Zone: 120.70 x 119.30
Sell Zone: 124.93 X 123.52

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Zweig showed a slight improvement for Friday.. that close really helped.

Cumulative Volume Index:

Friday for a hold.

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

Broader market note so enthused as the indexes. That is interesting to note in the bear column.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

How about that for a reach!

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Bullish

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

Dollar soaring, bonds spinning and market swooning.. $ES_F 1634 x 1584

Today’s Economic News:

German trade balance.. that’s nice. Not much today on the Eco front. Tax money is in from April 15th Tax Day, hence you will see a rare surplus.

Quote of the Day:
Commonsense and good nature will do a lot to make the pilgrimage of life not too difficult.
–William Somerset Maugham

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

We will end on Friday with a look at how the Zweig took a hit on that selling into the close. That should be the beginning of a trend of lower highs and lows on the Zweig until it decides the market has corrected enough.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1634
Long: 1584

We are going to be lazy about moving the upper limit and leave it where it is. It could be tweaked up one point maybe. The breadth yesterday was not as good as it had been, but most of the deterioration came in on the close, during the day we added about 425 new highs, so there are still buyers out there so we don’t think it is a straight shot from here to the downside by any means, but we will be shorting new highs.

That is all for this week, we are short (surprise) and looking for some more normal trading next week.

Sell Zone: 1641.50 x 1612.63
Buy Zone: 1554.75 x 1526.00

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

Finally a nice move off that 81.40 test and back to the recent highs at 83.32. We are out of our long from 82.06 and now are in the short area and looking for a possible overbought trade. We have an upside target on this move to 83.75 to 84. We maintain our longer term target at 86.

Sell Zone: 83.35 x 82.90
Buy Zone: 82.06 X 81.64

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

Welcome to the TLT a Whirl. We were all over the place yesterday, not sure if that slap down is a sign of things to come or not. We like the TLT long and will pick some up here pre-market around 119.55 if we can. We have an upside at 121.01/122.25/123.48

Sell Zone: 124.72 x 123.48
Buy Zone: 119.78X121.01

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

On the way down.

Cumulative Volume Index:

Nothing useful here..

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

The lower U/D volume percent number suggesting lower prints at sometime today.

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

The 40 DPI is just doing a bit of relaxing.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

This indicator is what keeps us from pulling the plug on this market.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Boring, Bullish..

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Boring, Bullish:

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

We may never pass this way again $ES_F 1583 x 1634

Today’s Economic News:

Nice numbers out of the UK. Really good stuff happening in Euro-land. Makes us question dollar long here. Right?

Quote of the Day:
It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native criminal class except Congress
–Mark Twain

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

Zweig is seriously overbought and if you could short the Zweig, this is the time and the place to fill the boat, a once a year type trade, but you can’t short the Zweig unless someone out there is smarter than me.

We will go lower on this index, but here is the kicker, that doesn’t mean that market prices will go lower, we need to watch not just the next pull-back but the next rally also in order to get a read on sustainability.

A trend this strong is hard to break. I have been fooled 3x already this year.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1558
Long: 1538

How does 1634 sound for a new high? The ES did an over-reach overnight and that sold off about 5 points and this morning we find ourselves just shy of the starting line. That also pushed our target upside to 1634 now but look at our lower range, it has not moved and remains at 1583, a 3% pullback now. The breadth is so strong and I can not find any cracks, they will show up though.

Buyers are buying highs thinking we may never pass this way again, we will of course but in the mean time we need to take the journey to the journey’s end, and don’t forget to laugh while the laughing is still easy!

Trade safe and watch for cracks.

Sell Zone 1636 / 1609
Buy Zone 1554 / 1527

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

Looking for the dollar to run back up to that

Sell Zone: 83.23/82.80
Buy Zone: 81.57/82.00

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

TLT is trying to fly off the bottom, but that market is too strong and keeps pulling the money back in, there should be a respite in here somewhere.

Sell Zone: 124.63 / 123.45
Buy Zone: 119.90/ 121.10

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Way overbought day 3.

Cumulative Volume Index:

Crazy.

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

This is still suggesting another green day today!

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

How is that for a move from April? 40% above their 40 DMA and now 80% a double.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Bullish:

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bullish:

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

Should see yet another new high based on this beastly breadth $ES_F 1628 x 1583

Today’s Economic News:

Color me green today.. all good and not a lot on the USA front.

Quote of the Day:
The deeper that sorrow carves into your being, the more joy you can contain.
–Kahlil Gibran

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

We put Dr. Zweig front and center today in the breadth spotlight. Up and over the overbought area we go again. Here is what we would expect now, a slower deterioration of the markets which means we should start seeing the Zweig weaken over the next month. Will it be enough to bring on over oversold? Not so sure about that.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1628
Long: 1583

Boring market, all those IRA stories are getting old and us market technicians are being played the fool as this market continues to inflate. Breadth remains very strong and those new highs, which I am now fixated on, just won’t stop popping. We did almost 500 new highs on the NYSE.. that is exuberance. Today we play the slide-up-the-range game again and put it in the 1628 arena and we will also watch the new highs and the open for sustainability. We are leaving in place our 1583 landing pad. Breadth is easily strong enough to propel us to new grinding highs.

Sell Zone: 1606 x 1630
Buy Zone: 1555 x 1530

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

The Dollar chart is just a mess. I am long from 82.065 today looking for 82.41 so we are looking for a little help from our 6E friends.

Buy Zone: 82.02 x 81.63
Sell Zone: 83.23 x 82.82

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

TLT, We are looking to form a bottom here and chasing a long.. I have an open order for 119.88 which I could slide down lower.. We are looking for a decent move back to 122 area and them up to the 123.50 area.

Sell Zone: 123.47 x 124.88
Buy Zone: 119.88 x 121

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Overbought! Looking for some deterioration from here on out.

Cumulative Volume Index:

We need wiggles in order to read the charts and this is just running away.

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

73% up volume yesterday, still no 9:1 type day but that is high enough to assume higher prints yet again today.

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

Same comment as above about wiggles.. This is so broad-based a real rising tide here.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

Still in trend up mode.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Bullish

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

Playing with fire, still can’t find those topping divergences watch $ES_f 1619 x 1583

Today’s Economic News:

Nice nice, on the Germany factory order.. something is a foot in Europe. Not much to watch here in the US..

Quote of the Day:
Injustice is relatively easy to bear; what stings is justice.
–H.L. Mencken

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

This chart, we all no, says grinding higher, those kind of 4 and 5 point higher days.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1619
Long: 1583

How simple is that? I am leaving the chart alone from yesterday, but note that the market is still hot hot hot as we open near the highs today and that gives us lots and lots of opportunity to smell out any weakening breadth which you can do that by watching ticks day over day or new highs on the NYSE or by watching the A/D lines compared to yesterday, on the other hand, we could break out and run in which we will have yet another sell zone speared through by the market that continues to be unbridled which is why we are watching 1619 for a hold and 1583 as a downside target.

Sell Zone: 1599.75 –> 1621.75
Buy Zone: 1533.75 –> 1554

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

We are flat the DX and evaluating for the future moves a little doubtful on our 86 bullish call now as Europe starts to heat a bit. We want to watch the 82.05 area for a hold and then for a move above 82.50 which would target the 82.80 area.

Buy Zone: 81.65 –> 82.05
Sell Zone: 82.84 –> 83.24

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

We like a buy here on the TLT up to the 123 area.

Buy Zone: 120.07 –> 121.20
Sell Zone: 123.45 –> 124.58

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

Just playing around in the overbought arena.

Cumulative Volume Index:

Reaching higher, no divergence showing yet.

Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

A/D lines were down a bit (that shows up on the Zweig) but breadth wise there was a decent frontal movement.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

See comment above, else no comment.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:

Bullish:

Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

Look how bullish this indicator has turned. wow.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

Next reach is $ES_F 1619 and 1583 for the hold

Today’s Economic News:

Decent PMI numbers out of Germany and slowing drop on retail sales.. the wind is starting to pickup in Europe again.

Quote of the Day:
It’s not how much you have that makes people look up to you, it’s who you are.
–Elvis Presley, celebrity singer

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

A look at the Zweig and our 3rd push into the overbought area, Today we need to watch the follow through and if we can keep that SP500 U/D volume % above 70%, we would expect a 3rd follow through day tomorrow.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1619
Long: 1583

So I should just template days after big moves since I always say the same thing… follow-through. The market has held over the weekend. We have 1619 now as the new upside potential reversal area and our lower target continues to move up quickly also, now at 1583. The quality of the hold or follow-through today will be a reveal.

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract: