RedlionTrader's Top Shelf
Today’s Economic News: Oh my goodness, look at that number out of Japan! Awesome. All about Michigan today at that odd 9:55am ET. Why is Detroit in the eastern time-zone? Quote of the Day:The enraged colonists were mad.–CJ’s US History Work Featured Breadth Chart of the Day: There is a plethora of bearish divergences today, [...]
Today’s Economic News: Decent numbers out of Japan today, watching for the 8:30 news, there is quite a bit in here. Quote of the Day:Intelligence without ambition is a bird without wings.–C. Archie Danielson Featured Breadth Chart of the Day: We will put up the Zwieg today to show the bearish divergence developing here. A [...]
| Reuters: May 18, 2013 4:40 am | |
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Wall Street Week Ahead: Correction talk gets old as rally sails along |
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NEW YORK (Reuters) – With the broad S&P 500 Index .SPX gliding once again into uncharted territory and posting four straight weeks of gains, the talk of Wall Street’s rally inevitably hitting a ceiling is starting to get old. Concerns about a technical correction have been a hot topic for weeks, especially as the rally accelerated in May – the S&P 500 is up 4.4 percent so far this month and up nearly 17 percent for the year. But as the three major U.S. stock indexes inch higher and higher to set record after record, many analysts are shrugging off the pullback worries.
“There isn’t a technical level that we have in mind at this point when making decisions. The momentum is really strong, and riding along that momentum is what we should have in mind at this point,” said Cam Albright, director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors in Wilmington, Delaware.
The S&P 500, which rose above the 1,600 level only about two weeks ago, is now less than 40 points away from 1,700.
As the market continues its upward move, some market participants are beginning to believe that the rally is not a bubble but rather the start of a new bull market. Others argue, meanwhile, that the strong momentum is not based on fundamentals like economic data or corporate earnings but is relying heavily on easy monetary policy from global central banks.
Regardless, the consensus in the short term is that the market will avoid two of Wall Street’s most popular maxims – “sell in May and go away” and “summer doldrums” – and maintain the upward momentum.
With earnings season coming to a close, next week’s focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve. Chairman Ben Bernanke will head up to Capitol Hill on Wednesday morning to testify on the economy before the Joint Economic Committee. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent policymaking meeting on April 30-May 1 will be released on Wednesday afternoon.
Preparations for the Memorial Day holiday on May 27 will probably cut trading short, and most market action is likely to be completed by mid-week. Lighter trading volume may also trigger slightly higher market volatility.
FEAR NO MORE
Along with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI has been setting a string of record highs. The Dow has gained 17.2 percent for the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC is up 15.9 percent for 2013 so far. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed at its highest level since October 2000.
Even at these levels, a popular options gauge shows investors are placing optimistic wagers on the stock market, positioning for the current run-up to extend for the next three months.
Earlier this week, the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer, known as the CSFB Index, fell 11.4 points over the past two weeks – the largest decline on record – and is now at a one-year low of 21.73.
The indicator essentially tracks investors’ willingness to pay for downside protection with zero-premium collar trades that expire in three months, using S&P 500 index .SPX options.
“It’s unusual to see at these levels that there are very few indications (based on options activity) that investors are expecting a pullback,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.
The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX .VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is down more than 1 percent for the week.
The options market is a popular place for investors to hedge against a sudden fall in the stock market. Among the most popular strategies are put options on the S&P 500 index, and call options on the VIX, which generally moves inversely to the S&P 500.
“Even if we see 1 (percent) to 2 percent decline, that will be just another opportunity for people to get into the market,” Frederick said.
Next week’s economic indicators include existing home sales for April on Wednesday, followed by weekly jobless claims and new home sales for April on Thursday, and durable goods orders for April on Friday.
In earnings, a number of retailers’ results are expected next week, including Home Depot (HD.N), Best Buy Co (BBY.N) and Lowe’s Companies (LOW.N).
(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: angela.moon(at)thomsonreuters.com)
(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Jan Paschal) |
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| Reuters: May 18, 2013 4:40 am | |
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China April housing inflation quickens to two year high |
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BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s housing inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in April in two years, driven by a jump in prices in Beijing and Shanghai, complicating the task of policymakers trying to cool the property sector while supporting economic expansion. Average new home prices rose 4.9 percent last month from a year ago, after a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percent in March, according to Reuters calculations from data released by the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS) on Saturday.
The rise was the sharpest since April 2011.
Rising home prices have reignited concerns about property inflation, adding to pressure on policymakers who are struggling to curb house prices and still spur a strong economic recovery.
“The market expectations on rising home prices have not changed thoroughly and the property tightening campaign is still at a critical stage to strictly enforce (curbing measures),” Liu Jianwei, a senior statistician at the NBS, said in a statement.
Worried about a rebound in home prices, China’s government unveiled a fresh round of measures in March to try to cool the sector, though those measures were less stringent than market expectations.
New home prices in Beijing rose 10.3 percent in April from a year earlier and Shanghai’s prices were up 8.5 percent in April from a year ago. Both marked the fastest year-on-year gains since January 2011 when NBS changed the way it calculated data.
China’s fight against property speculation has headed into its third year but many middle-class Chinese are still priced out of the urban housing market.
EASING MONTH-ON-MONTH GAINS ON CURBS
However, on a monthly basis, new home prices rose 1 percent in April, easing from March’s gain of 1.2 percent, the NBS data showed, providing tentative signs that recent government moves to ward off property bubbles are biting.
Home prices rose month-on-month in 67 of 70 major cities monitored by the NBS in April, down from 68 in March.
The accelerating year-on-year home price gains were mainly caused by low bases last year as over 60 percent of 70 cities saw month-on-month price drops last April, said Liu.
China’s home prices began their latest climb in mid-2012 when the central bank started expanding monetary easing as part of Beijing’s growth-supporting policies.
“Going forward, we expect property sector policy to stabilize in the coming months and see a modest property recovery to continue,” Tao Wang, an economist at UBS, said in a note to clients before the data was released.
“Meanwhile, the recent property tightening, including administrative price controls, may keep property prices from rising too rapidly in a few large cities,” Wang added.
Reuters started its weighted China home price index in January 2011 when the NBS stopped providing nationwide data, only giving home price changes in each of 70 major cities.
(Reporting By Xiaoyi Shao and Michael Martina; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani) |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:40 am | |
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lindayueh: WB research: European banks’ deleveraging from $24 trillion peak in 2008, reduced total foreign claims by over 30% http://t.co/M4wARJKj1M |
| WB research: European banks’ deleveraging from $24 trillion peak in 2008, reduced total foreign claims by over 30% http://www.voxeu.org/article/european-bank-deleveraging-and-global-credit-conditions#.UZc9_rPWP1E.twitter … |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:40 am | |
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lindayueh: Crafts: UK strong recovery 1933-6 due to monetary stimulus Abenomics/0.6% for whole decade worked thru house building http://t.co/eR7qHuQIYK |
| Crafts: UK strong recovery 1933-6 due to monetary stimulus Abenomics/0.6% for whole decade worked thru house building http://www.voxeu.org/article/escaping-liquidity-traps-lessons-uk-s-1930s-escape#.UZc9OyVHqj8.twitter … |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:32 am | |
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lindayueh: Solely on basis of #ECB introductory statements in 1st 3 years of €=fairly accurate picture of policy stance later on http://t.co/byOWBWHkdU |
| Solely on basis of |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:32 am | |
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lindayueh: 32.7% of exporters conducted processing trade +contributed 54.6% to exports: China a key link in global supply chains http://t.co/qVZ6Hvea9v |
| 32.7% of exporters conducted processing trade +contributed 54.6% to exports: China a key link in global supply chains http://www.voxeu.org/article/firms-and-credit-constraints-along-global-value-chain-processing-trade-china#.UZc7uMwBvIM.twitter … |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:32 am | |
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lindayueh: Factory Asia: Fragmentation trade much higher in Asia: 62.5% of total manufacturing exports vs world average of 52.8% http://t.co/7HcNbYKXGh |
| Factory Asia: Fragmentation trade much higher in Asia: 62.5% of total manufacturing exports vs world average of 52.8% http://www.voxeu.org/article/can-ftas-support-factory-asia#.UZc6q0wF61E.twitter … |
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| PRNewsWire: May 18, 2013 4:24 am | |
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Release of 2012 (the 9th) China Software Export and Service Outsourcing Ranking List |
| NINGBO, China, May 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ – On May 18th 2013, The 2013 China (Ninghai) Software Export and Service Outsourcing Conference & Release of 2012 (the 9th) China Software Export and Service Outsourcing Ranking List is held in Ninghai. This conference is hosted by www.csso.com.cn and Ninghai Science and Technology Park Administration and held under the auspices of China Software Industry Association and People’s Government of Ninghai County. More than 200 representatives who are from famous Chinese software and service outsourcing enterprises or related to this area attend the conference. Chu Yinliang, the mayor of The people’s Government of Ninghai County, and Zhao Xiaofan, the director of China Software Industry Association, deliver a speech in the conference respectively on behalf of the organizers. Based on the Chu Yinliang’s brief introductions, Ninghai County, located in the east coast of Zhejiang Province and south of the Yangtze River Delta, is a state-level ecological demonstration zone. In 2012, Ninghai ascends to No.58 in National TOP 100 Counties Based on Economic Competitiveness. With a long history, rich culture and beautiful natural landscape, Ninghai is the starting point of the book “Travels of Xu Xiake” written by the famous traveler Xu Xiake of the Ming Dynasty, and the birthplace of May 19th China Tourism Day. It has beautiful mountains and rivers with warm and humid climate, and is well-known as “natural oxygen bar, a fairyland on earth.” It also has many state-level 4A Class scenic spots, such as The National Forest Park “Nanxi Hot Spring” that is one of the three most famous hot springs in China, The Tianhe Ecological Area comprised of Zhejiang‘s No. 1 Grand Canyon, The ancient town “Qiantong” built during Ming and Qing Dynasty and so on. Ninghai is an ideal place both for living and business. Ninghai enjoys a rapid economical development. Mold, stationery, auto parts, lighting, hardware machinery and electronics industries are its six traditional flagship industries. Ninghai has won the titles of “China Mold Industry Base,” “China Stationery Industry Base,” “China Auto Rubber Parts Industry Base” and “China Die-Casting Industry Base.” 2012 (the 9th) China Software Export and Service Outsourcing Ranking List is released in this conference. As the first professional organization to pay attention to China‘s domestic software export and service outsourcing industry, www.csso.com.cn has hosted software export and service outsourcing ranking list annually since 2005. It’s the 9th this year. It is the most prestigious list nationwide. Mr. Xiao Yaping, executive director of the China Software Industry Association and Editor-in-chief of <China‘s software and service outsourcing>, said that, “after the last ten years of rapid development, the achievements of China‘s software industry are gratifying, but we should also see the gap between China and other world’s industrial powers. Especially our enterprises are now facing various challenges.” Chinese software and service outsourcing industry needs to achieve a quality breakthrough. Currently, Chinese software and outsourcing service industry should focus on the stability, progress steadily, and strive for innovation during the business, so “Advance steadily; develop with innovation” is taken as the theme of this conference. Ranking list information is as follows: 2012 TOP 20 China Software Export Enterprise 2012 TOP 20 China Service Outsourcing Enterprise 2012 China Software and Service Outsourcing Brand Star 2012 China Software and Service Outsourcing leader Good Reputation Award of 2012 China Software and Service Outsourcing Park The best industry development environment award of 2012 China software and service outsourcing park Excellent Organizations and Figures of Promoting 2012 China Software and Service Outsourcing Development Gong Guanying, Dean of Software & Service Outsourcing College of Chengdu University of Information Technology The special promotion figures of 2012 China Software and Service Outsourcing The most investment value Award of 2012 China Software and Service Outsourcing Please visit http://www.csso.com.cn for more details
SOURCE China Software & Service Outsourcing RELATED LINKS |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:24 am | |
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lindayueh: WB research: Mozambique & Tanzania supplied almost 70% of the world’s cashews in 1970s, fell to 7%, struggled since http://t.co/LKVksIggLO |
| WB research: Mozambique & Tanzania supplied almost 70% of the world’s cashews in 1970s, fell to 7%, struggled since http://www.voxeu.org/article/why-reforms-fail-political-economy-forces-and-agriculture-africa#.UZc6SRMa8YI.twitter … |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:24 am | |
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lindayueh: Reconcile perception of sharp division of views among top economists vs evidence of strong consensus on most issues? http://t.co/yc7bcfwlDo |
| Reconcile perception of sharp division of views among top economists vs evidence of strong consensus on most issues? http://www.voxeu.org/article/views-among-economists-are-economists-really-so-divided#.UZc493MxObY.twitter … |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:24 am | |
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NicTrades: FT: UBS tells staff to stop using external platforms like Bbg chat rooms to discuss client trades & other confidential information |
| FT: UBS tells staff to stop using external platforms like Bbg chat rooms to discuss client trades & other confidential information |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 4:16 am | |
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NicTrades: Wife wins battle for billion pound hedge fund http://t.co/BZrL1GhrJs |
| Wife wins battle for billion pound hedge fund http://tgr.ph/19J2Xah |
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| Turn Key Oil: May 18, 2013 4:08 am | |
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Ultra Petroleum – The Rebound In Natural Gas Prices Should Continue Through 2015 $UPL |
Ultra Petroleum – The Rebound In Natural Gas Prices Should Continue Through 2015 $UPLBy Devon Shire The best cure for low natural gas prices is supposed to be low natural gas prices. I still think that is true, but I certainly had no idea that a cure could take this long. Natural gas prices started hitting the skids in 2008 when surging shale gas production in the United States met up with the global financial crisis. It was a perfect recipe for a commodity price collapse. A collapse that we are still waiting for a recovery from. Back in June of 2012 with natural gas prices under $3 per mcf, Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) CEO finally stopped sugarcoating the issue and said what everyone else already knew. Since then natural gas prices, which had been extremely depressed in 2012 by a really warm winter, have rebounded considerably to the $4/mcf range. But what I really want to know, though, is where do we go from here? Can producers make a profit at $4/mcf natural gas? Or do prices have to continue to rise for the economics to work? Rather than try and speculate for myself, I thought I’d turn to the smart guys who manage natural gas focused Ultra Petroleum (UPL). Calling a turn up in natural gas prices has cost a lot of people a lot of money over the past five years, but we may finally be at a point where the recent upturn is more than just a temporary blip. To read the complete article, click here.
Author of the value investing newsletter detailing the formation of the “Punch Card Portfolio” called Value Investor Canada. Devon Shire is an accountant and an investor with 15 years experience managing a private portfolio. Devon Shire’s preferred portfolio management style is a concentrated approach, investing only when finding opportunities that offer a sufficient discount to the intrinsic value of a business. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Oil investment carries with it very high risks. The information contained within this site has not been nor will it be verified by Turn Key Oil and is subject to change at any time. We are not a United States Securities Dealer or Broker or United States Investment Adviser. Do your own due diligence and consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer before making any decisions. div { margin-top: 1em; } |
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| Turn Key Oil: May 18, 2013 4:08 am | |
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Will Higher Natural Gas Prices Boost Enerplus Corp.? $ERF |
Will Higher Natural Gas Prices Boost Enerplus Corp.? $ERFEnerplus Corp. (ERF) is a Canadian oil and natural gas producer with assets located both in Western Canada and the US. Enerplus has recently seen its stock price increase over 15% due to stronger than expected earnings and increases in realized energy prices. Enerplus currently offers a $0.09 per share monthly dividend and at current prices yields about 6.90%. Enerplus has been shifting away from Canadian production of oil and gas. The company has newer assets and production located in the Bakken and Marcellus shale. This has balanced Enerplus’ production portfolio, with a split of 60% in Canada and 40% in the US. The US assets offer Enerplus more liquids production than the Canadian assets and generally better pricing. The Bakken production in particular has a much higher concentration of light oil and has helped Enerplus stabilize its funds from operations (“FFO”). On May 10, Enerplus reported its Q1 2013 results. For the quarter, Enerplus’ average production was 87,183 BOE/D, a 10% increase from the 79,190 BOE/D in Q1 2013. Crude oil production averaged 38,321 BBL/D, up 12% from 34,074 BBL/D in Q1 2012. Natural gas production also saw a 9% increase to 271,602 MCF/D. However, NGLs production did see a 10% drop to 3,595 BBL/D. During the quarter, Enerplus’ production mix was similar to Q1 2012 at 48% liquids and 52% natural gas. read the full story here.
My main investing focus is on finding and analyzing high-yield dividend stocks. I have a strong preference for deep value and/or dividend-growth stocks. I am also currently a student majoring in financial accounting. I have been actively trading stocks since 2009. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Oil investment carries with it very high risks. The information contained within this site has not been nor will it be verified by Turn Key Oil and is subject to change at any time. We are not a United States Securities Dealer or Broker or United States Investment Adviser. Do your own due diligence and consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer before making any decisions. div { margin-top: 1em; } |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 3:56 am | |
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lindayueh: EU’s top trade official cites China telecoms firms "Huawei and ZTE are dumping their products on the European market" http://t.co/NIlXGG8owv |
| EU’s top trade official cites China telecoms firms “Huawei and ZTE are dumping their products on the European market” http://reut.rs/12IsjTi |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 3:48 am | |
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M_McDonough: Visiting Taiwan http://t.co/1C3uDabkL5 |
| Visiting Taiwan pic.twitter.com/1C3uDabkL5 |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 3:40 am | |
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M_McDonough: South Korea tracked North Korea missile launch from ‘start until end’ South Korean presidential spokeswoman Kim Haing said -Bloomberg |
| South Korea tracked North Korea missile launch from ‘start until end’ South Korean presidential spokeswoman Kim Haing said -Bloomberg |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 3:40 am | |
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M_McDonough: *NORTH KOREA FIRES THREE SHORT-RANGE MISSILES OFF EAST COAST. -Bloomberg |
| *NORTH KOREA FIRES THREE SHORT-RANGE MISSILES OFF EAST COAST. -Bloomberg |
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| TwitterFeed: May 18, 2013 3:40 am | |
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HarvardBiz: How to establish credibility in a new job http://t.co/saajMYY2ai |
| How to establish credibility in a new job http://s.hbr.org/17GIKFh |
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| ABQJournal: May 18, 2013 2:24 am | |
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N.M., 39 states post jobless rate drop |
| Unemployment rates in 40 U.S. states including New Mexico decreased last month, with the declines showing job markets are improving in most areas of the country, according to the U.S. Labor Department and state Department of Workforce Solutions. New Mexico’s rate of over-the-year job growth, comparing April 2013 with April 2012, was 1.0 percent, representing a gain of about 7,900 jobs, Workforce Solutions reported Friday. April 2008, five years ago, was the last time over-the-year employment growth was at or above the 1 percent line, the department said. Nine industries added employment, while three industries lost jobs over the year. The transportation, warehousing, and utilities industry reported no change in the number of jobs. The largest employment gains were reported by the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 2,500 jobs since April of last year. The construction industry reported the best over-the-year numbers since 2006, gaining 1,800 jobs. On the downside, the professional and business services industry reported the loss of 1,500 jobs. New Mexico’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.7 percent in April from 6.9 percent in March. A primary reason for falling unemployment rates around the country remains that more Americans have stopped looking for work, rather than found jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. () The Associated General Contractors noted in a news release Friday that New Mexico was finally among the 29 states adding construction jobs, adding 1,000 in April from March and almost 2,000 on a year-over-year basis. The Labor Department report said 30 states added jobs in April, while 18 reported fewer jobs. Nationwide, employers added 165,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell to a four-year low of 7.5 percent. The Associated Press contributed to this report. |
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Linda Yueh
Nicola Duke™ 
Michael McDonough
Harvard Biz Review