Monthly Archives: July 2010

Head and shoulders target for $SPY to 120 by Labor Day?.. a case [Chart]

July 20, 2010
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Head and shoulders target for $SPY to 120 by Labor Day?.. a case [Chart]

I want to make a case for a $SPY target to 120.  Sentiment could not be worse so often that is fuel for a rally we are just missing an ignition source.  Chart wise we could trace out the following pattern on the SPY.   The pattern would require a sell-off over the next...
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No breaks for the bulls.. $SPX 1059 or 1072?

July 20, 2010
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No breaks for the bulls.. $SPX 1059 or 1072?

Good morning.    No breaks for the bulls.  A little green yesterday from a  grind up  that was wiped away by overnight action.  The dollar hit an overnight low at 82.40 and has rallied up .63 to 83 area and the futures have sold off accordingly.  Economic news overnight looked ok.  The German PPI...
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40 DMA percent index still a little bullish.. $SPX

July 19, 2010
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40 DMA percent index still a little bullish.. $SPX

Score: +4 The Nasdaq has joined the NYSE on the bull side of the signal line.  The RUT remains just below.  Tuesday will set our fate as we wait for instructions from the market on what the new trending direction is. Video: How to interpret 40 DMA % Index Download: StockFinder  5.0  – 40...
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10 day highs minus lows solid in the bears camp …

July 19, 2010
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10 day highs minus lows solid in the bears camp …

Score: –6 10 Day high minus lows’ bearish tone was set in stone on the down move today.  The NYSE still has not crossed into negative territory but its lower daily and downward momentum indicator have it as well as the weaker Nasdaq and RUT on full bear signals.   Video: How to interpret...
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How crazy is the market? 52 week new highs are a perfect trifecta.. $SPX

July 19, 2010
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How crazy is the market?  52 week new highs are a perfect trifecta.. $SPX

  Score: +0  The 52 WHNs put in a neutral 0 score but did so by each index putting in a completely different score.  A mark of confusion.  The NYSE turned bullish today (+2) the RUT whet from bearish to neutral (-0) and the Nasdaq remained bearish (-2).   Not sure when that happened before. ...
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Tests are saying 6 day short, 3% target on $SPX

July 19, 2010
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Tests are saying 6 day short, 3% target on  $SPX

6:43Am and we have a nice gap developing.    We are post OPEX Monday, a day with terrible seasonals, in the middle of the peak of Q2 earnings seasons with a deteriorating economy that is on a verge of a double dip recession lead by housing and the bulk of the economic news this week...
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Best play for Friday’s OPEX close Long or Short for a 10 days on $SPY..

July 18, 2010
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Best play for Friday’s OPEX close Long or Short for a 10 days on $SPY..

For fun I have run the numbers on buying and shorting Friday OPEX closes that exceed 2% pullbacks.   So here’s the question.. would I be better off buying or shorting into Friday’s close looking at a 10 day window and what are the parameters for doing so.    My strategy inputs are: Long...
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Ding Dong.. the thrust is dead.. which old thrust?.. The Zweig Thrust.. $SPX

July 18, 2010
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Ding Dong.. the thrust is dead.. which old thrust?.. The Zweig Thrust.. $SPX

I have been doing my daily countdown to see if we could get a Zweig buying thrust from the oversold to overbought area (it needs to travel the distance in 10 day to be official).  We still have one more day left but mathematically now it is impossible.  If we were to get all...
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The road traveled last week.. $TF_F, $SPX, $BKX, Semis

July 18, 2010
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The road traveled last week.. $TF_F, $SPX, $BKX, Semis

This is our market map for the week in 30 minute slices.  On Monday the Semis took off on Intel expectations which did not disappoint and led to a rally top on the Wednesday open (about 4.8% weekly gain) that sold off for the rest of the week and dissolving to only a 0.6%...
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52 week new highs.. at lows and now covered in bear fur. $SPX

July 18, 2010
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52 week new highs.. at lows and now covered in bear fur.  $SPX

Score: -6  The bulls lost the daily and the upward momentum on the 52 week new highs on Friday and now all is pointing in the downward direction.   The Russell 2000 was particularly alarming with a dismal 3 on the day.  The 52 week new lows perked right up and are once again eclipsing...
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